Executives are increasingly citing artificial intelligence to justify job cuts, with firms like Cisco among the latest to do so. But a New York Fed analysis using an AI-exposure metric from Anthropic finds that while postings in highly exposed roles—such as programming, customer service, and data entry—have fallen relatively more, the divergence began before ChatGPT’s late-2022 debut and showed no clear break afterward, stabilizing by 2023. Government data echo the nuance: hiring slowed in early 2022 but recently rebounded to a two-year high, while layoff rates remain historically low despite a modest uptick. The study also finds no concentrated pullback in entry-level postings in exposed occupations, undercutting claims that AI is chiefly sidelining younger workers. The results suggest broader macro forces, not AI alone, are driving the cooling in labor demand.
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Generative AI at Work: Evidence from a Call Center – NBER
Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets – NBER
