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Ray Dalio warns an AI-fueled tech-stock bubble is building—but says it may not burst until the Fed tightens policy

Microsoft’s AI Integration Drives Early Revenue Growth
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Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio cautioned that an AI-fueled rally in megacap technology shares bears classic bubble traits, but argued the run-up may persist until the Federal Reserve tightens policy. Speaking in Riyadh, Dalio said his “bubble indicator” is elevated as gains concentrate in a handful of Big Tech names, with roughly 80% of advances clustered at the top of the market. With the Fed poised to ease again, Dalio sees a two-speed economy—weakness in some sectors and exuberance in AI-linked stocks—that monetary policy can’t easily balance, echoing late-1990s dynamics. The risk, he said, is mounting even if timing the eventual break is uncertain.

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— The dot-com bubble
— Federal Funds Rate
— S&P 500
— Bridgewater Associates
— Monetary policy

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