U.S. economic growth is increasingly concentrated in artificial intelligence outlays, analysts say, raising questions about durability. Third-quarter GDP rose 4.3% year over year, but firms including Pantheon Macroeconomics and Deutsche Bank argue that private fixed investment outside AI-linked sectors is fading. Deutsche Bank says the economy would have been near recession absent tech-related spending, while hyperscalers—Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle—are projected by BofA to spend about $399 billion on AI this year, with totals set to climb.
Much of that buildout is being financed in credit markets. Goldman Sachs estimates AI-related issuers accounted for more than $200 billion of net new dollar bonds in 2025, roughly 30% of net supply, with more expected next year. BofA pegs potential incremental revenue at roughly $1 trillion over five years from cloud, digital ads and AI subscriptions, noting historical returns of $0.90 in revenue and $0.42 in EBITDA for every $1 of capex in the following year. Deutsche Bank cautions the cumulative AI data-center tab could reach $4 trillion by 2030—10 times the inflation-adjusted cost of Apollo—with no guaranteed payoff.
Deutsche Bank warns U.S. growth is leaning on AI capex, with payoffs far from assured
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