Goldman Sachs cautions AI-stock investors to curb near‑term expectations

Goldman Sachs warned that the AI trade may be entering a more selective phase, with investors likely to demand clear, near-term earnings contributions before rewarding companies touting AI potential. The firm’s U.S. equity strategist Ryan Hammond said AI investment as a share of capex may be peaking, raising the risk of disappointment if profits don’t follow. Recent market action underscores the point: Nvidia has slipped as investors reassess its outlook, while Salesforce and Figma were punished after underwhelming earnings. Hammond noted valuations in large U.S. tech remain above historical averages but well below dot-com and 2021 extremes, suggesting downside may be limited. He highlighted stretched pockets—naming Tesla and Palantir—while emphasizing that a “Phase 3” of the AI trade will likely produce clear winners and losers.

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