Wall Street analysts say today’s AI surge doesn’t yet meet the classic hallmarks of a bubble, despite a flurry of circular deals that recall the late-1990s. Bank of America argues vendor-financing arrangements likely represent a small slice of what could be $5 trillion in AI outlays by 2030, while Goldman Sachs notes Big Tech’s gains rest on robust profits and balance sheets rather than speculation alone. OpenAI’s massive, multiyear chip and cloud commitments underscore the scale of the buildout, but analysts point out it’s just one player among several ecosystems driving demand. Even so, risks are building: mega-cap concentration looks stretched, debt issuance at tech giants is rising as cash cushions thin, and U.S. IPO pops have hit Dotcom-era levels. For now, the Street’s verdict is “not a bubble”—but the trajectory bears close watching.
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