Anthropic has released an interactive model that lets users test how artificial intelligence could reshape the U.S. economy under a range of adoption and capability assumptions. Scenarios span from a modest productivity lift with minimal labor disruption to an extreme case in which GDP growth accelerates more than sevenfold while unemployment jumps, with roughly 14% of workers displaced and fewer than half reemployed. The tool highlights diffusion speed as the key swing factor and reflects a divide between AI experts, who expect rapid spread, and economists, who are more cautious. Co-founder Jack Clark projects fast technical progress but slower deployment, while a survey of nearly 11,000 people anticipates both strong productivity gains and significant worker disruption. The model also underscores potential fiscal upside from rapid growth, suggesting policymakers prepare to deploy safety nets and transition support.
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