The rapid spread of artificial intelligence resembles the early-2000s “China shock,” and could ultimately prove a boon to growth, according to Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo. Slok argues that, as with China’s WTO entry—which coincided with low overall U.S. unemployment, cheaper inputs, and a roughly 50% rise in real manufacturing value added since 2001—AI should lift productivity and spur new business formation even as it displaces some white-collar tasks. Citing Jevons paradox, he contends efficiency gains can expand demand and support employment, pointing to radiology’s workforce growth despite AI tools. Economist David Autor counters that AI will not reprise the China trade shock, saying it targets functions rather than regions or industries, promising sizable productivity benefits for firms but potentially broader, more diffuse labor disruption.
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