Artificial intelligence won’t erase U.S. colleges, but it may accelerate a sorting already under way. Jay Caspian Kang argues that higher education’s core value lies less in knowledge transfer than in credentialing—signaling traits employers want. With public trust in institutions falling, rising tuition, and AI tools that approximate research and tutoring, more students may question paying for a degree, especially outside the elite tier. Data points underscore the shift: a sizable share of graduates work in jobs not requiring a degree, most Americans say higher ed is on the wrong track, and young adults rating college “very important” have dropped sharply since 2013. Thought leaders from Sam Altman to Sal Khan and Scott Galloway expect change but not extinction, envisioning hybrid models and expanded online offerings. The likely outcome is a winner-take-all market: elite privates and flagship publics endure, while many smaller colleges struggle, and alternative, lower-cost credentials proliferate. The campus won’t vanish, but its monopoly on launching white-collar careers looks weaker in the AI era.
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